Seasonal Temperatures and Economic Growth in the United Kingdom

Emediegwu, Lotanna E ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7844-0397, Vienne, Veronica ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8047-8861 and Animashaun, Jubril ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4900-7687 (2025) Seasonal Temperatures and Economic Growth in the United Kingdom. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics. ISSN 0305-9049

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Abstract

We study the effect of seasonal temperature on economic growth using spatiotemporal econometric techniques and council-level data for the United Kingdom (UK). We find that higher temperatures during summer reduce economic growth, whereas milder winters raise output growth. These effects are amplified in wealthy local councils on the Southern axis of the UK. Also, we find that local economic growth is related to growth in neighbouring councils. The results are robust to several sensitivity analyses. They are persistent and not driven by unobservable factors related to regional economic conditions. Our findings provide new insights into the consequences of future warming in advanced economies.