An assessment of climate change impacts on oases in northern Africa

Leal, W ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1241-5225, Stojanov, R ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0471-7055, Matsoukas, C ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7183-0728, Ingrosso, R ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4052-3896, Franke, JA, Pausata, FSR, Grassi, T, Landa, J ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1390-5285 and Harrouni, C ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5336-2991 (2024) An assessment of climate change impacts on oases in northern Africa. Ecological Indicators, 166. 112287. ISSN 1470-160X

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Abstract

Oases are vulnerable ecosystems that are affected by climate change. Using high-resolution climate models focusing on northern Africa, we investigate the changes in the agrosystems of oases. Projected air temperature changes under an extreme global warming scenario are statistically significant for all oases studied, with an increase of up to 4–4.5 °C by the end of the century. The impact of the projected warming is likely to lead to an increased groundwater demand, with a parallel trend in reduced precipitation. Combined, these processes endanger the long-term socio-economic prospect of oases.