Impact of Unidentified Aerial Phenomena (UAPs) on air safety: evidence from Airbus® TCAS/ROSE simulators

Escolà-Gascón, Álex ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3086-4024, Dagnall, Neil ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0657-7604, Denovan, Andrew ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9082-7225 and Drinkwater, Kenneth ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4015-0578 (2024) Impact of Unidentified Aerial Phenomena (UAPs) on air safety: evidence from Airbus® TCAS/ROSE simulators. Journal of Air Transport Management, 119. 102617. ISSN 0969-6997

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Abstract

The present research was designed to provide evidence into why and when Unidentified Aerial Phenomena (UAPs) occur and pose a threat to aviation safety. Specifically, the goal was to understand how causal illusions interact with perceptual biases with and without irrational reasoning. A total of 408 airline pilots participated in an experiment using Airbus® aircraft TCAS/ROSE simulators. Analyses were conducted using structural equation modeling (SEM), controlling for the effects of fatigue and flight hours. Results indicated that causal illusions were 82.4% predictive of UAP sightings only when magical inference was present. Our experimental evidence shows that UAPs may be explained as cognitive biases and would pose a threat to aviation safety if pilots—or even aircraft AIs—were to detect them in an irrational way (e.g., as alien objects). A novel theorization that integrates major perception, clinical, and cognition models is offered. Additionally, the authors discuss the implications for aviation safety and determine when a UAP sighting may pose a real danger on a commercial flight.