La prévision économique des médailles par nation aux Jeux Olympiques de Paris 2024

Andreff, Wladimir, Scelles, Nicolas ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6177-5307, Bonnal, Liliane, Andreff, Madeleine and Favard, Pascal (2024) La prévision économique des médailles par nation aux Jeux Olympiques de Paris 2024. Revue de l'OFCE (185). pp. 1-44. ISSN 1265-9576

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Abstract

The sporting performance assigned by the political power to France’s national squad for the 2024 Olympics is compared to the forecasts of a macroeconometric model which already proved successful since it has found 95% of sporting outcomes at the Tokyo Games. Country variables are: population, GDP/inhabitant, the number of athletes per team, the number of medals won (net of disqualifications for doping) at the previous Olympics, and dummies standing for the host country effect, the political regime, sport specialisation, the country hosting the next Games, and another dummy for having hosted the previous Olympics. All Tobit and Hurdle estimations forecast the same four major medal winners with a same ranking: the US, China, Russian athletes and Great Britain teams. France’s national squad would win 47/48 medals (extreme margins of the confidence intervals: 43 and 60) which would rank it either 5th or 6th in medals totals. This is far from the initial political objective of 70 to 80 medals. According to our forecasting model, the initial objective in terms of medal count is unreachable and statistically improbable but the revised objective of the 5th rank is reachable.