The Kurdistan Regional Government’s decision to hold the independence referendum on 25 September 2017: a poliheuristic analysis

Sulaiman, Mahmoud Sheikh (2023) The Kurdistan Regional Government’s decision to hold the independence referendum on 25 September 2017: a poliheuristic analysis. Doctoral thesis (PhD), Manchester Metropolitan University.

File will be available on: 8 November 2025. Available under License Creative Commons Attribution Non-commercial No Derivatives. Download (1MB)

Abstract

In September of 2017, the population of the Kurdistan Region of Iraq (KRI) took part in a Referendum over the question of seeking independence from the rest of Iraq. This went ahead despite indications from the international community that the result would not be recognised, and amid warnings of retaliation from the Baghdad government and neighbouring countries. The vote had been postponed once before, in 2014, when the proximity of ISIS forces and pressure from international allies persuaded the Kurdish Regional Government (KRG) to wait for a more opportune moment. In contrast, in 2017, the decision was made to press on with the vote despite unfavourable conditions. In this thesis, I set out to analyse the decision-making process that led the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) of Iraq to hold the September 2017 Referendum for independence. Three key junctures are examined: the 2014 postponement; the decision to set a date for the Referendum in 2017; and the decision to go ahead with the vote in 2017. The methodology of poliheuristic theory (PHT) allows a nuanced approach to these decisions, incorporating the cognitive and emotional aspects of decision-making. By considering which options are viewed by the decision-maker as ‘unselectable,’ PHT offers a way to avoid characterising decisions as simply ‘irrational’ or ‘miscalculated.’ PHT proceeds by creating decision matrices to illuminate the various dimensions in which decisions are taken. In a slight adaptation of standard PHT procedures, interviews with figures who held key positions during 2014 and 2017 or had particular insight into them provide the data to fill these decision matrices. These are supplemented with statements made in print or other media during the era in question. Through the methodology of PHT, a fine-grained account of the decisions is generated, avoiding a problematic characterisation of ‘irrationality’ or the bias introduced by hindsight. In the light of this deeper understanding of personal and emotional context, this thesis therefore shows how the decisions taken were not so much a ’miscalculation’ as the most viable course for the specific decision-makers involved.