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    Predictors of long-term survival in 5,680 patients admitted to a UK major trauma centre with thoracic injuries

    Ariyaratnam, P, Lee, A ORCID logoORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1378-3123, Milton, R, Troxler, M, Barlow, IF, Ferrier, G and Scott, DJA (2023) Predictors of long-term survival in 5,680 patients admitted to a UK major trauma centre with thoracic injuries. Annals of the Royal College of Surgeons of England, 105 (6). pp. 540-547. ISSN 0035-8843

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    Introduction: The long-term outcomes of chest trauma are largely unknown. We sought to determine the predictors of in-hospital and long-term survival in patients admitted to a major trauma centre (MTC) with chest injuries and to evaluate spatial patterns of injury in our network area. Methods: Retrospective analysis of data collected on the National Trauma Audit Research Network (TARN) database using multivariate analysis and Cox regression analysis. Spatial analysis was performed using ArcGis 10.7.1. Results: Some 5,680 patients were admitted with chest trauma between December 1999 and December 2019. Median patient age was 45 years and the median Injury Severity Score (ISS) was 20. The proportion of patients who had an operation was 39.8%. Age, blood transfusion, head injury, shock, emergency thoracotomy and heart disease were predictors of hospital mortality (p < 0.05). However, having an operation on concomitant injuries was protective. ISS and Glasgow Coma Score were discriminators of in-hospital mortality (C-indices 0.76 and 0.80, respectively). The 10-year survival values for patients who survived to discharge from hospital and who were aged <40, 50, 60, 70, 80 and >80 years were 99%, 93%, 95%, 87%, 75% and 43%, respectively. Preadmission lung disease and alcohol/drug misuse were poor predictors of long-term survival (p < 0.05). Hotspot analysis revealed the areas with the highest incidents were all close to the MTC. Conclusions: The MTC is geographically central to areas with high numbers of trauma incidents. Although emergency thoracotomy was a predictor of poor in-hospital outcomes, having surgery for concomitant injuries improved outcomes. Patients surviving to discharge have good long-term survivals.

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