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Forecasting: theory and practice

Petropoulos, Fotios, Apiletti, Daniele, Assimakopoulos, Vassilios, Babai, Mohamed Zied, Barrow, Devon K, Bergmeir, Christoph, Bessa, Ricardo J, Boylan, John E, Browell, Jethro, Carnevale, Claudio, Castle, Jennifer L, Cirillo, Pasquale, Clements, Michael P, Cordeiro, Clara, Oliveira, Fernando Luiz Cyrino, Baets, Shari De, Dokumentov, Alexander, Fiszeder, Piotr, Franses, Philip Hans, Gilliland, Michael, Gönül, M Sinan, Goodwin, Paul, Grossi, Luigi, Grushka-Cockayne, Yael, Guidolin, Mariangela, Guidolin, Massimo, Gunter, Ulrich, Guo, Xiaojia, Guseo, Renato, Harvey, Nigel, Hendry, David F, Hollyman, Ross, Januschowski, Tim, Jeon, Jooyoung, Jose, Victor Richmond R, Kang, Yanfei, Koehler, Anne B, Kolassa, Stephan, Kourentzes, Nikolaos, Leva, Sonia, Li, Feng, Litsiou, Konstantia, Makridakis, Spyros, Martinez, Andrew B, Meeran, Sheik, Modis, Theodore, Nikolopoulos, Konstantinos, Önkal, Dilek, Paccagnini, Alessia, Panapakidis, Ioannis, Pavía, Jose M, Pedio, Manuela, Pedregal, Diego J, Pinson, Pierre, Ramos, Patrícia, Rapach, David E, Reade, J James, Rostami-Tabar, Bahman, Rubaszek, Michał, Sermpinis, Georgios, Shang, Han Lin, Spiliotis, Evangelos, Syntetos, Aris A, Talagala, Priyanga Dilini, Talagala, Thiyanga S, Tashman, Len, Thomakos, Dimitrios, Thorarinsdottir, Thordis, Todini, Ezio, Arenas, Juan Ramón Trapero, Wang, Xiaoqian, Winkler, Robert L, Yusupova, Alisa and Ziel, Florian (2021) Forecasting: theory and practice. International Journal of Forecasting. ISSN 0169-2070 (In Press)

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Abstract

Forecasting has always been in the forefront of decision making and planning. The uncertainty that surrounds the future is both exciting and challenging, with individuals and organisations seeking to minimise risks and maximise utilities. The lack of a free-lunch theorem implies the need for a diverse set of forecasting methods to tackle an array of applications. This unique article provides a non-systematic review of the theory and the practice of forecasting. We offer a wide range of theoretical, state-of-the-art models, methods, principles, and approaches to prepare, produce, organise, and evaluate forecasts. We then demonstrate how such theoretical concepts are applied in a variety of real-life contexts, including operations, economics, finance, energy, environment, and social good. We do not claim that this review is an exhaustive list of methods and applications. The list was compiled based on the expertise and interests of the authors. However, we wish that our encyclopedic presentation will offer a point of reference for the rich work that has been undertaken over the last decades, with some key insights for the future of the forecasting theory and practice.

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