Enveloping tendencies in fragments of a simulation theory

Terán, Oswaldo, Edmonds, Bruce and Wallis, Steve (2000) Enveloping tendencies in fragments of a simulation theory. In: Manchester Metropolitan University Business School Working Papers. Working Paper. Manchester Metropolitan University. ISSN 1471-857X

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Abstract

In this paper we present a methodology aimed at systematically exploring the 'envelope' of simulation trajectories allowing us to prove the necessity of tendencies respect to Fragments of a Simulation Theory. More well-grounded conclusions about tendencies in a simulation can be dig up than those given by existing methods like Monte Carlo techniques and Scenario Analysis where partial investigation of trajectories are performed - this is helpful in research areas such as Social Simulation, Management and Policy Analysis. We propose a method for searching for tendencies and proving their necessity, in Multi Agent Systems, relative to a range of parameterisations of the model and agents' choices, and to the logic of the simulation language. Additionally, a computational procedure that helps implement this exploration by translating the Multi Agent Systems simulation into a constraint-based search over possible trajectories by 'compiling' the simulation rules into a more specific form is proposed and exemplified.