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A method for uncertainty constraint of catchment discharge and phosphorus load estimates

Hollaway, MJ and Beven, KJ and Benskin, CMWH and Collins, AL and Evans, R and Falloon, PD and Forber, KJ and Hiscock, KM and Kahana, R and Macleod, CJA and Ockenden, MC and Villamizar, ML and Wearing, C and Withers, PJA and Zhou, Jian and Barber, NJ and Haygarth, PM (2018) A method for uncertainty constraint of catchment discharge and phosphorus load estimates. Hydrological Processes, 32 (17). pp. 2779-2787. ISSN 0885-6087

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Abstract

River discharge and nutrient measurements are subject to aleatory and epistemic uncertainties. In this study, we present a novel method for estimating these uncertainties in colocated discharge and phosphorus (P) measurements. The "voting point"-based method constrains the derived stage-discharge rating curve both on the fit to available gaugings and to the catchment water balance. This helps reduce the uncertainty beyond the range of available gaugings and during out of bank situations. In the example presented here, for the top 5% of flows, uncertainties are shown to be 139% using a traditional power law fit, compared with 40% when using our updated "voting point" method. Furthermore, the method is extended to in situ and lab analysed nutrient concentration data pairings, with lower uncertainties (81%) shown for high concentrations (top 5%) than when a traditional regression is applied (102%). Overall, for both discharge and nutrient data, the method presented goes some way to accounting for epistemic uncertainties associated with nonstationary physical characteristics of the monitoring site.

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