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The impact of Global Climate Change on Water Quantity and Quality: A System Dynamics Approach to the US-Mexican Transborder Region

Duran-Encalada, JA and Paucar-Caceres, AL and Bandala, ER and Wright, GH (2016) The impact of Global Climate Change on Water Quantity and Quality: A System Dynamics Approach to the US-Mexican Transborder Region. European Journal of Operational Research. ISSN 1872-6860

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Abstract

The potential impacts of Global Climate Change (GCC) in zones where water is scarce, such as along the US–Mexico border is, and will continue to be, a key concern for the future sustainability of humanity. This paper estimates the variation in quality/quantity water due to climate change and assesses its impact on community development in the US–Mexico border region of the Rio Grande/Rio Bravo Water Basin. To estimate variation in different water quality parameters, we use a conservative model with most probable scenarios for temperature/precipitation produced by the International Panel on Climate Change. We propose a system dynamics model to understand the complex interaction of factors governing the quantity/quality of water and their effects on social and economic conditions. The model simulates, for a 70-year period, policies and decisions that have the potential to improve conditions and prevent risks that may lead to social unrest and hinder economic development.

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